Midterm Report Card

What it is: A running scorecard of how Congress and the White House behave after the midterms. It started from a prediction Antonio made on Nov 4 and tracks whether events back it up or cut against it.

The big number: How confident Antonio is in his prediction, out of 10. It moves in small steps, only when a test is settled or a pattern shows up, and every move has a reason and a source in the history.

Report cards: Tests for each party, written in advance so they can't be bent after the fact. Core tests count double and supporting tests count once. Each starts Pending, then becomes Watching, Passed or Failed as news comes in. Tap a test for the evidence and the best case against it.

Flags and patterns: Things being watched but not scored. A flag becomes a pattern when two or more separate events point the same way at least 3 days apart.

Readings: Figures the daily run collects. Each says how sure the app is: confirmed (two independent sources, one a primary record), single source, sources differ (every value shown, none picked), stale since a date, or not confirmed with the reason. Tap a reading for its sources and when they were fetched.

Parked shelf: Outside causes, like gas prices moved by Iran talks, that say little about either party. They are set aside and rechecked on a date.

Simple and Breakout: Simple is the 30-second view. Breakout splits the combined grocery-cost test in two and groups every test into top, middle and bottom tiers.

Please note: This is Antonio's tracker and reflects his framework and judgment, not neutral news. Facts come from linked sources you can open to check. Numbers are a snapshot from the latest daily update, not a live feed.